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Guest Post: Left Beginning to Concede Sali Race?

September 23rd, 2008 by Halli

From Bryan Fischer, Idaho Values Alliance

Polling data done for the uber-left Daily Kos website shows Rep. Bill Sali up over his challenger Walt Minnick by a 46%-35% margin. These are discouraging numbers for the left, for the poll was taken after Minnick had done extensive and expensive advertising and before Sali had aired his first television commercial. Sali’s advantage is well outside the poll’s margin of error (4.5%).

The Democrats realize that this election, Sali’s first re-election bid, likely represents their best and perhaps last chance to unseat the staunch conservative. If Sali wins this election, he likely can stay in Washington, D.C. as long as he wants to, a dismal prospect for the big government, higher taxes crowd.

Even the Kos is forced to admit sadly that the polling data “suggests Sali has the better odds” and that the race for Minnick “remains uphill.” The results, says the Kos, also may reflect the Palin effect, whose choice as Sen. McCain’s running mate “has the potential to reinvigorate” Sali’s supporters.

RealClearPolitics says the polling data suggests that “Idaho Rep. Bill Sali could be cruising toward a second” term. RealClear notes that party strategists in D.C. are giving Minnick an “inordinate amount of attention,” but suggests that their optimism about Minnick’s chances “may be a case of irrational exuberance.”

It goes without saying that both campaigns will run full tilt, as they both must and should, right up until Nov. 4. But the polling results will certainly energize Sali supporters for the remaining weeks of the campaign and be dispiriting to the Minnick camp.

Senate race

The senatorial race appears to be leaning decisively in Lt. Gov. Jim Risch’s direction. The Kos poll puts Risch at 56%, Democratic challenger Larry LaRocco at 33% and independent Rex Rammell at 3%. (An August poll conducted by Greg Smith and Associates showed Rammell’s support at 10%). Risch’s favorables are quite high, with 68% of Idahoans sharing a “favorable” or “very favorable” view of him, while LaRocco’s unfavorables are an alarmingly high 55%.

Presidential race

In the presidential race, McCain leads Obama by a huge 62%-33% margin, which the Kos says is an indication that “Palin has definitely fired up the wingnut base in Idaho.” The fact that the Kos calls 62% of Idahoans “wingnuts” when they in fact represent the view of mainstream Gem Staters is simply a reflection of how out of alignment the left is with ordinary American and Idaho values.

The bottom line analysis of Idaho races (including Sali’s) by the Kos: “Our guess is that the margins soften a little between here and November. But we don’t see at this point what would change them dramatically.”

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Posted in Congressman Bill Sali, Guest Posts, Politics in General, Presidential Politics | No Comments »

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